On Jul 26, 5:20=A0pm, dpb <[email protected]> wrote:
> dpb wrote:
> > Dave in Houston wrote:
> >> "dpb" <[email protected]> wrote in messagenews:[email protected]...
> > ...
> >>> We're hoping it keeps up enough steam heading west to eventually
> >>> swing up the panhandle and give as a chance...
> > ...
> >> =A0 =A0 Hate to "rain" on your parade but the latest forecast model I =
saw
> >> puts in moving almost directly west from the Brownsville area and even
> >> turning slightly west-southwest.
>
> > The farther west it gets before the steering westerlies take over from
> > the Pacific coast the better our chances become...it's always a long
> > shot, but once in a while...
>
> > The DDC 2AM "behind the scenes" discussion didn't mention the scenario
> > this morning, though. =A0:(
>
> But as of 2PM today, the following update...
>
>
>
> > Area forecast discussion
> > National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
> > 344 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2008
>
> > Discussion...
> =A0> ...
> > Days 3-7...
> =A0> ...
> > I think the ECMWF, which is generally consistent with the Canadian
> > model, suggests the most realistic track for Dolly's remains. If
> > correct, this may be one of the better chances of widespread
> > rainfall in a while roughly Monday night into Tuesday for the dry
> > western (KS) counties.
> > ...
>
> Hooboy, surely hope it does pan out...
>
> --
My sister in Olathe would probably be pissed that all her new
grassseed would wash away.
"Lew Hodgett" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:lcxhk.359$DS3.275@trnddc01...
> Based on the weather reports, you folks keep your heads down and the rest
> of you out of harm's way.
>
> Lew
>
>
Thanks Lew, but that little ole rain storm is 4-500 miles away.
On Jul 23, 10:13 pm, "Lew Hodgett" <[email protected]> wrote:
> Looks like "Dollie" is going to wreac a little havoc in South Texas.
>
> Looks like Rio Grande valley takes the hit this time.
>
> Lew
Yeah, way down south from here those folks could wind up with a final
tally of about 18"+ of rain before the storm finally passes them.
Some areas had 12" (around Brownsville) by the 10:00pm (central time)
newscast tonight. That's a ton of water for one day...
We are hoping for 1/2" or so now, not much. But we will certainly
take what we can get. Further mandatory water restrictions are just
days away.
Robert
I wonder if they named it Dolly because of the huge frontal system.
;-)
Glen
--
"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant: It's
just that they know so much that isn't so."
- Ronald Reagan
"Lew Hodgett" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:VrShk.510$5Q.374@trnddc06...
>
> Looks like "Dollie" is going to wreac a little havoc in South Texas.
>
> Looks like Rio Grande valley takes the hit this time.
>
> Lew
>
>
"Leon" wrote
> You just don't get the sensationalism mileage from telling the truth and
> reporting the "facts".
That's because it's not "reporting the facts", it's "distorting" the "facts"
... whether there are any, or not.
<Bunch of damn cynic's, aren't we ... and is there any wonder why?>
--
www.e-woodshop.net
Last update: 5/14/08
KarlC@ (the obvious)
On Wed, 23 Jul 2008 18:47:45 +0000, Lew Hodgett wrote:
> <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>
>> If you are like me (a hobby gardener) you watch the rain closely. I
>> never saw anything like the 6 or so inches in my side
>> of town they said we had this year. At my house (inner city guy) I had
>> a little over 2" so far this year. That's it.
>
> If actual local weather reports are of any interest, do a Google for
> "weather bug" and down load it.
Weatherbug has a long and not very good history for also installing
adware and (originally) real nasties like Gator.
Many people recommend WeatherWatcher instead. I haven't tried it. yet.
"Swingman" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> "Robatoy" wrote
>
>> What I found astounding, was that one of the news networks already
>> reported 'likely' storm damage at 3.6 billion BEFORE the storm even
>> made landfall.
>
> Count your blessings ... with a hurricane in the Gulf, the price of oil
> didn't go up another 50% overnight, maybe.
Crews were being hauled in 2 days ago. The fact that oil prices are still
lower than they were in the beginning of June further proves that there is
not a supply problem. Oil prices are simply a "What the market will bare"
situation versus the commonly misused term "supply and demand".
"dpb" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
> Swingman wrote:
>> "Robatoy" wrote
>>
>>> What I found astounding, was that one of the news networks already
>>> reported 'likely' storm damage at 3.6 billion BEFORE the storm even
>>> made landfall.
>>
>> Count your blessings ... with a hurricane in the Gulf, the price of oil
>> didn't go up another 50% overnight, maybe.
>
> We're hoping it keeps up enough steam heading west to eventually swing up
> the panhandle and give as a chance...
>
> Not that we're hoping ya'll get drowned, but we're more interested in the
> longer term prospects up thisaway... :)
>
> At least a couple of the longterm models are projecting it just might so
> hope they're right...
Hate to "rain" on your parade but the latest forecast model I saw puts
in moving almost directly west from the Brownsville area and even turning
slightly west-southwest.
Dave in Houston
"Lew Hodgett" wrote
> Got your waders handy?<G>
Don't worry about it. Right now everything has a roof, so we won't get much
rain here in Houston until I have another foundation to pour, house half
framed, or excavations to fill with water ... guaranteed!
--
www.e-woodshop.net
Last update: 5/14/08
KarlC@ (the obvious)
"Lew Hodgett" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:lcxhk.359$DS3.275@trnddc01...
> Based on the weather reports, you folks keep your heads down and the rest
> of you out of harm's way.
I'm just hoping for a good soaking across south Texas. It's too late to
water the corn but not too late to water the deer.
Dave in Houston
<[email protected]> wrote
> On Jul 23, 10:13 pm, "Lew Hodgett" <[email protected]> wrote:
> > Looks like "Dollie" is going to wreac a little havoc in South Texas.
> >
> > Looks like Rio Grande valley takes the hit this time.
> Yeah, way down south from here those folks could wind up with a final
> tally of about 18"+ of rain before the storm finally passes them.
> Some areas had 12" (around Brownsville) by the 10:00pm (central time)
> newscast tonight. That's a ton of water for one day...
>
> We are hoping for 1/2" or so now, not much. But we will certainly
> take what we can get. Further mandatory water restrictions are just
> days away.
We've had a few small, but welcome showers here in Houston. AAMOF, I left
out walking a little before 5 this morning and got soaking wet the last half
mile ... still drying as I type.
--
www.e-woodshop.net
Last update: 5/14/08
KarlC@ (the obvious)
"Dave in Houston" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Hate to "rain" on your parade but the latest forecast model I saw puts
> in moving almost directly west from the Brownsville area and even turning
> slightly west-southwest.
>
> Dave in Houston
>
Or as put by Dr. "Scare'em into a panic" Neil Frank puts it, the storm is
turning "right". Idiot!. A compass heading would be more accurate.
"Swingman" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> "Leon" wrote
>
>> You just don't get the sensationalism mileage from telling the truth and
>> reporting the "facts".
>
> That's because it's not "reporting the facts", it's "distorting" the
> "facts"
> ... whether there are any, or not.
MANUFACTURING news. Gotta fill all that time.
Dave in Houston
"Robatoy" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
On Jul 23, 9:28 am, "Swingman" <[email protected]> wrote:
> "Lew Hodgett" wrote
>
> > Got your waders handy?<G>
>
> Don't worry about it. Right now everything has a roof, so we won't get
> much
> rain here in Houston until I have another foundation to pour, house half
> framed, or excavations to fill with water ... guaranteed!
>
What I found astounding, was that one of the news networks already
reported 'likely' storm damage at 3.6 billion BEFORE the storm even
made landfall.
They must be sucking those numbers out of their asses.
Oh, wait... it could have come from a source who wasn't authorised to
comment.
This is no longer astounding, it is expected commentary from an uneducated
group of reporters.
Normally warnings are not issued until a particular event has already
happened. Tornado warnings are not issued until evidence is seen that there
is actually a tornado. A tornado "watch" is issued if one is likely and
until one is spotted. The same used to go for Hurricanes but not on this
storm. I don't recall there being a hurricane watch issued however the
hurricane warnings were issued 3 days ago, long before there was an actual
hurricane.
You just don't get the sensationalism mileage from telling the truth and
reporting the "facts".
On Jul 23, 8:03 am, "Dave in Houston" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> Ditto here in NW Houston. If we don't get any more here we're OK. San
> Antonio and south is real, real dry.
You got that right. We have had 6.72" registered for the whole year.
Our normal rainfall about this time is around 19".
But what really tells the tale is the fact that from about this time
last year to the end of the year we only got another 1.5" or so.
That means in the last 12 months we have had a little over 8" in
twelve months. Conditions around here show it, espeically if you were
in the area where it rains in the city compared to where it doesn't.
San Antonio is now over 500 square miles area according to our land
grabbing city council (gotta get that tax base, you know) and they
only collect and measure the water at the airport on the north side of
town.
It's a big city. If you are like me (a hobby gardener) you watch the
rain closely. I never saw anything like the 6 or so inches in my side
of town they said we had this year. At my house (inner city guy) I
had a little over 2" so far this year. That's it.
Robert
On Jul 23, 9:28=A0am, "Swingman" <[email protected]> wrote:
> "Lew Hodgett" wrote
>
> > Got your waders handy?<G>
>
> Don't worry about it. Right now everything has a roof, so we won't get mu=
ch
> rain here in Houston until I have another foundation to pour, house half
> framed, or excavations to fill with water ... guaranteed!
>
What I found astounding, was that one of the news networks already
reported 'likely' storm damage at 3.6 billion BEFORE the storm even
made landfall.
They must be sucking those numbers out of their asses.
Oh, wait... it could have come from a source who wasn't authorised to
comment.
"cavelamb himself" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Lew Hodgett wrote:
>> "Leon" wrote:
>>
>>
>>>Thanks Lew, but that little ole rain storm is 4-500 miles away.
>>
>>
>>
>> Guess it only has 75MPH winds, just makes it as a "cane".
>>
>> Expected to come ashore tomorrow morning.
>>
>> Got your waders handy?<G>
>>
>> Lew
>
> It looks like it's heading for Brownville.
>
> That's 300 miles from Houston and 550 miles from me in Dallas.
>
> I just hope we get some rain frome it.
>
>
> --
>
> Richard
>
>And after Brownsville, forecast is to move straight west. Looks like no
>rain even for Marble Falls, let alone Dallas.
Swingman wrote:
> "Robatoy" wrote
>
>> What I found astounding, was that one of the news networks already
>> reported 'likely' storm damage at 3.6 billion BEFORE the storm even
>> made landfall.
>
> Count your blessings ... with a hurricane in the Gulf, the price of oil
> didn't go up another 50% overnight, maybe.
We're hoping it keeps up enough steam heading west to eventually swing
up the panhandle and give as a chance...
Not that we're hoping ya'll get drowned, but we're more interested in
the longer term prospects up thisaway... :)
At least a couple of the longterm models are projecting it just might so
hope they're right...
--
Dave in Houston wrote:
> "dpb" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
...
>> We're hoping it keeps up enough steam heading west to eventually swing up
>> the panhandle and give as a chance...
...
> Hate to "rain" on your parade but the latest forecast model I saw puts
> in moving almost directly west from the Brownsville area and even turning
> slightly west-southwest.
The farther west it gets before the steering westerlies take over from
the Pacific coast the better our chances become...it's always a long
shot, but once in a while...
The DDC 2AM "behind the scenes" discussion didn't mention the scenario
this morning, though. :(
--
dpb wrote:
> Dave in Houston wrote:
>> "dpb" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
> ...
>>> We're hoping it keeps up enough steam heading west to eventually
>>> swing up the panhandle and give as a chance...
> ...
>> Hate to "rain" on your parade but the latest forecast model I saw
>> puts in moving almost directly west from the Brownsville area and even
>> turning slightly west-southwest.
>
> The farther west it gets before the steering westerlies take over from
> the Pacific coast the better our chances become...it's always a long
> shot, but once in a while...
>
> The DDC 2AM "behind the scenes" discussion didn't mention the scenario
> this morning, though. :(
But as of 2PM today, the following update...
> Area forecast discussion
> National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
> 344 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2008
>
> Discussion...
> ...
> Days 3-7...
> ...
> I think the ECMWF, which is generally consistent with the Canadian
> model, suggests the most realistic track for Dolly's remains. If
> correct, this may be one of the better chances of widespread
> rainfall in a while roughly Monday night into Tuesday for the dry
> western (KS) counties.
> ...
Hooboy, surely hope it does pan out...
--
Robatoy wrote:
> On Jul 26, 5:20 pm, dpb <[email protected]> wrote:
>> dpb wrote:
>>> Dave in Houston wrote:
>>>> "dpb" <[email protected]> wrote in messagenews:[email protected]...
>>> ...
>>>>> We're hoping it keeps up enough steam heading west to eventually
>>>>> swing up the panhandle and give as a chance...
>>> ...
>>>> Hate to "rain" on your parade but the latest forecast model I saw
>>>> puts in moving almost directly west from the Brownsville area and even
>>>> turning slightly west-southwest.
>>> The farther west it gets before the steering westerlies take over from
>>> the Pacific coast the better our chances become...it's always a long
>>> shot, but once in a while...
>>> The DDC 2AM "behind the scenes" discussion didn't mention the scenario
>>> this morning, though. :(
>> But as of 2PM today, the following update...
>>
>>
>>
>>> Area forecast discussion
>>> National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
>>> 344 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2008
>>> Discussion...
>> > ...
>>> Days 3-7...
>> > ...
>>> I think the ECMWF, which is generally consistent with the Canadian
>>> model, suggests the most realistic track for Dolly's remains. If
>>> correct, this may be one of the better chances of widespread
>>> rainfall in a while roughly Monday night into Tuesday for the dry
>>> western (KS) counties.
>>> ...
>> Hooboy, surely hope it does pan out...
>>
>> --
>
> My sister in Olathe would probably be pissed that all her new
> grassseed would wash away.
They're 400 miles away back there and out here we're, frankly, not
concerned... :)
It's been quite unusual year up this way -- from US 283 and east they're
either wet or drowning; west and we're burning up. We're on the verge
of desperate, but right here we've had several local showers just a few
miles away haven't so we're in good shape compared to many. Much of
Cimarron County, OK, hasn't had an inch or two all year.
--
Robatoy wrote:
...
> My sister in Olathe would probably be pissed that all her new
> grassseed would wash away.
> Area forecast discussion
> National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas
> 328 am CDT sun Jul 27 2008
>
> Discussion...
>
> Days 1-2...
>
> The main forecast challenge this cycle will be probability of
> precipitation and timing of probability of precipitation.
>
> ... Then on Monday...the energy and moisture from ts Dolly slide up
> and over the upper level ridge. This could bring some welcome moisture
> to much of the County Warning Area. Have upped probability of
> precipitation to upper 30s on Monday and higher into the 40 pop range
> Monday night. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are handling Dolly
> differently...with the GFS keeping the bulk of the precipitation south
> of US in Oklahoma. The European model (ecmwf)...the NAM and the Canadian
> are all bringing good quantitative precipitation forecast into our
> County Warning Area...a farther north solution than the GFS. Our
> probability of precipitation may have to be raised even more for Monday
> and Monday night if the model trends continue. The GFS has more
> quantitative precipitation forecast than last night's run...so it is
> trending toward the European model (ecmwf).
There ya' go! 30-40%!!! _NOW_ we're talking! :)
Of course, this year has been one where even the 70-80% numbers haven't
panned out for us more often than not... :(
In the "rich get richer" scenario, central and east got rain yet again
last night; local summer baseball team is in El Dorado and they got
rained out for second night in a row...
--
"Swingman" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> <[email protected]> wrote
>> On Jul 23, 10:13 pm, "Lew Hodgett" <[email protected]> wrote:
>> > Looks like "Dollie" is going to wreac a little havoc in South Texas.
>> >
>> > Looks like Rio Grande valley takes the hit this time.
>
>> Yeah, way down south from here those folks could wind up with a final
>> tally of about 18"+ of rain before the storm finally passes them.
>> Some areas had 12" (around Brownsville) by the 10:00pm (central time)
>> newscast tonight. That's a ton of water for one day...
>>
>> We are hoping for 1/2" or so now, not much. But we will certainly
>> take what we can get. Further mandatory water restrictions are just
>> days away.
>
> We've had a few small, but welcome showers here in Houston. AAMOF, I left
> out walking a little before 5 this morning and got soaking wet the last
> half
> mile ... still drying as I type.
Looks like another band is coming:
http://www.accuweather.com/radar-large.asp?partner=washpost&traveler=0&site=TXS&type=SIR&anim=1&level=state&large=1
Dave in Houston
"Scott Zrubek" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> In article <[email protected]>,
> "Dave in Houston" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> "Lew Hodgett" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>> news:lcxhk.359$DS3.275@trnddc01...
>> > Based on the weather reports, you folks keep your heads down and the
>> > rest
>> > of you out of harm's way.
>>
>> I'm just hoping for a good soaking across south Texas. It's too late
>> to
>> water the corn but not too late to water the deer.
>>
>> Dave in Houston
>
> We got some rain starting at around 4:30 this morning in Houston. We
> need more. Central Texas needs it even more.
Ditto here in NW Houston. If we don't get any more here we're OK. San
Antonio and south is real, real dry.
Dave in Houston
<[email protected]> wrote:
> If you are like me (a hobby gardener) you watch the
> rain closely. I never saw anything like the 6 or so inches in my
> side
> of town they said we had this year. At my house (inner city guy) I
> had a little over 2" so far this year. That's it.
If actual local weather reports are of any interest, do a Google for
"weather bug" and down load it.
Lew
"Dave in Houston" wrote
> Looks like another band is coming:
>
http://www.accuweather.com/radar-large.asp?partner=washpost&traveler=0&site=TXS&type=SIR&anim=1&level=state&large=1
Yeah ... had to cancel a 'fill and grade' scheduled for today. That's all it
takes for it to rain. ;)
--
www.e-woodshop.net
Last update: 5/14/08
KarlC@ (the obvious)
"Robatoy" wrote
> What I found astounding, was that one of the news networks already
> reported 'likely' storm damage at 3.6 billion BEFORE the storm even
> made landfall.
Count your blessings ... with a hurricane in the Gulf, the price of oil
didn't go up another 50% overnight, maybe.
--
www.e-woodshop.net
Last update: 5/14/08
KarlC@ (the obvious)
In article <[email protected]>,
"Dave in Houston" <[email protected]> wrote:
> "Lew Hodgett" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:lcxhk.359$DS3.275@trnddc01...
> > Based on the weather reports, you folks keep your heads down and the rest
> > of you out of harm's way.
>
> I'm just hoping for a good soaking across south Texas. It's too late to
> water the corn but not too late to water the deer.
>
> Dave in Houston
We got some rain starting at around 4:30 this morning in Houston. We
need more. Central Texas needs it even more.
Lew Hodgett wrote:
> "Leon" wrote:
>
>
>>Thanks Lew, but that little ole rain storm is 4-500 miles away.
>
>
>
> Guess it only has 75MPH winds, just makes it as a "cane".
>
> Expected to come ashore tomorrow morning.
>
> Got your waders handy?<G>
>
> Lew
>
>
It looks like it's heading for Brownville.
That's 300 miles from Houston and 550 miles from me in Dallas.
I just hope we get some rain frome it.
--
Richard
(remove the X to email)